749
FXUS61 KRNK 120625
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENT MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH CANADA, BUT FAVORABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXTEND
SOUTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH HIGHER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE PARENT SHORTWAVE, STRONG SURFACE HEATING TODAY
ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (DEW POINTS INTO THE MID
60S/LOW 70S) WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH HIGH
DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THIS WOULD FAVOR A DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL WITH STORMS TODAY, WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL
THREAT IN CELL MERGERS. BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE
THE STRENGTH OF A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
COULD INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT STORMS FIZZLING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS
STRETCH WITH UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED. HIGH HEAT COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100F. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 105F.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF AS
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWERED AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE MUGGY
FEELING OUTSIDE; HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MID TO
UPPER 90S LOOK TO RETURN IN THE PIEDMONT, AND MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST TODAY. WILL HAVE AT LEAST VCTS FOR MOST TERMINALS BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FROM 20Z THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO MIDNIGHT OR SO. STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE A DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AROUND 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
FRONT HEADS EAST TONIGHT WITH STORMS EXITING. PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYING ON SATURDAY BEFORE GOING
BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/EB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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