506
FXUS61 KRNK 121729
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGHEST SEVERE WIND RISK IS NOW FOR THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. SUNDAY'S
SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, QUIET FOR
SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
REMNANTS FROM AN MCS ARE MOVING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY BUT CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE. THE DEBRIS CLOUD FROM IT IS JUST ENTERING OUR AREA,
AND MAY SLIGHTLY AFFECT INSTABILITY, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDING AT BLACKSBURG
SHOWED CAPE VALUES ALREADY OVER 2000 J/KG, WITH SUFFICIENT LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A FORCING MECHANISM, WHICH WILL COME BY WAY OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. BARRING ANY SETBACKS WITH INSTABILITY, SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
A CONSISTENT WESTERLY WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TODAY,
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND CAUSE SOME
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THE MOVE EAST OFF OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR MOST LIKELY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. STORMS
THAT DO SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK
WITH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S, AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY OVER 1000 J/KG,
INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL DOWNBURSTS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 1" IN DIAMETER. SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE LOW,
WHICH NEGATES ANY TORNADO THREAT. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN
BE A CONCERN, THOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A STEADY PACE.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WOULD BE POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS, AND THE USUAL FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS. STORMS DISSIPATE FULLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR SOUTH BRIEFLY, THOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, AGAIN PROVIDING FORCING
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. MANY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE ALREADY
IN THE LOW 90S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY. KRNK 18 UTC SOUNDING
ANALYZED AN 850MB TEMPERATURE OF 20 CELSIUS, WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY SUPPORT NEAR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NRV, AND HIGHER VALUES FURTHER EAST IN THE PIEDMONT AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHILE A MORE DRY AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY STILL LOOK TO BE HOT, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S FORECAST FOR THE PIEDMONT, AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL
LESS MUGGY ON SATURDAY; HOWEVER, A RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS, WILL INCREASE HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.
WHILE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE REGION, AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS SHOULD AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. THOSE THAT WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD SIMILARLY TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS INDOORS WITH AC, AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH LATE EVENING STORMS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS. THESE
STORMS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING IF THEY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF A
TERMINAL. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TIME PERIOD FOR THESE STORMS
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 20 UTC AND 02 UTC, WITH BLF AND LWB LIKELY
SEEING EARLIER TOWARDS THAT TIME PERIOD, AND BCB/ROA SEEING THE
MIDDLE OF THAT TIME PERIOD, AND DAN/LYH SEEING THE TAIL END OF
THAT TIME PERIOD. THESE STORMS AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FROM DOWNBURST, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME HAIL.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORM CHANCES ABOVE, WINDS LOOK TO PREDOMINANTLY
REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH TODAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS
TODAY. MUCH CALMER WINDS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THESE ELEVATED WINDS MAY PREVENT RIVER VALLEY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS; HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FOG
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL
TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE GOING BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
AN ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047-058-
059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/JCB
AVIATION...EB
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