768
FXUS61 KRNK 122329
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ENDING BY 9PM.
HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8PM FOR THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC.
SUNDAY'S SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ENDING THIS EVENING,
QUIET FOR SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.
EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN STORM STRENGTH THIS EVENING. A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT TIL 9PM.
GOING TO SEE DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND SOME FOG FORMATION IS
LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR SOUTH
BRIEFLY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON
SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, AGAIN PROVIDING FORCING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WHILE A MORE DRY AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S FORECAST FOR THE PIEDMONT, AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL
LESS MUGGY ON SATURDAY; HOWEVER, A RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS, WILL INCREASE HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.
WHILE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE REGION, AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS SHOULD AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. THOSE THAT WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD SIMILARLY TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS INDOORS WITH AC, AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT LYH AT THE START OF THE 00Z TAFS, AND
WILL HAVE VCTS AT DAN AMENDING AS NEEDED. SHOWERS FURTHER WEST
WILL BE ENDING BY 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK FOR VFR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND DAMP CONDITIONS, DO
FORESEE FOG BEING AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY BLF/LWB/BCB, AND PERHAPS
THE OTHER TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE IFR TO LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT
BLF/LWB/BCB LATE TONIGHT, CLEARING AFTER 13-14Z SAT, THEN VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
GOING BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY LATE NIGHT FOG AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047-058-
059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/JCB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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