966
FXUS61 KRNK 131742
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IS INCREASING.
HIGH TEMPERATURE WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM AS ITS BEEN
BIASING A COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, SOME MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE THERE LOOKS TO BE
AN EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROLL THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AS
CAM MODELS ONCE AGAIN SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AREA. THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE
STORM EVOLUTION MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT AS
SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES START TO PRESENT THEMSELVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BY TOMORROW, AND EVEN THOUGH EARLY MORNING DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AREAWIDE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRY POCKET OF AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS THAT LOOK TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING VALUES IN
THE RANGE OF 1000-1300 J/KG AS DAYTIME HEATING ADDITIONALLY LEADS
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. MLCAPE
VALUES LOOK TO EXCEED 1500 J/KG, WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO HELP
FUEL STORMS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES, DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS, AND DCAPE VALUES ALSO EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
A RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, WILL INCREASE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ONCE AGAIN. WHILE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ACROSS THE REGION, AND SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD AVOID OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THOSE THAT WORK
OUTDOORS SHOULD SIMILARLY TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS WITH AC,
AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, ENDING 18Z SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING PATCHY EARLY MORNING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, FOR KLWB AND KBCB. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
SPECIFIC VSBY VALUES, SINCE AFTER A DAY OF DRYING, THE GROUND MAY
NOT BE AS MOIST, BUT THERE IS A SMALL, NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF VSBYS
LOWER THAN 3SM. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE ONSET
OF DAYTIME MIXING.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED, CLOUD BASES
BETWEEN 3KFT AND 7KFT, AND SOME HIGHER CIRRUS IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, AND THIS TREND GENERALLY CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE PIEDMONT DURING SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD MAINLY IMPACT KDAN,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. LOW END VFR TO
POSSIBLY MVFR CEILINGS DO REACH KBLF AND KLWB TOWARDS THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH. PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR FOR SUNDAY, OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF STORMS, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO COME AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT,
EXISTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MOSTLY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, WITH THE OCCASIONAL
GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY, THEN INCREASING AFTER THAT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
GOING BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY LATE NIGHT FOG AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS
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