242
FXUS61 KRNK 132345
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY HAS EXPANDED AS THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCREASED THE SLIGHT RISK TO COVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURE WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM AS ITS BEEN
BIASING A COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, SOME MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE THERE LOOKS TO BE
AN EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROLL THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AS
CAM MODELS ONCE AGAIN SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AREA. THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE
STORM EVOLUTION MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT
AS SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES START TO PRESENT THEMSELVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BY TOMORROW, AND EVEN THOUGH EARLY MORNING DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AREAWIDE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRY POCKET OF AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS THAT LOOK TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING VALUES IN
THE RANGE OF 1000-1300 J/KG AS DAYTIME HEATING ADDITIONALLY
LEADS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT, AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO EXCEED 1500 J/KG, WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO
HELP FUEL STORMS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BASED
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES, DRY AIR THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS, AND DCAPE VALUES ALSO EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
A RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, WILL INCREASE HEAT INDEX
VALUES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ONCE AGAIN. WHILE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ACROSS THE REGION, AND SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD AVOID OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THOSE THAT WORK
OUTDOORS SHOULD SIMILARLY TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS WITH AC,
AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. EXPECT VFR TO GIVE WAY TO SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS,
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KT EVEN WELL
AFTER 18Z. CONVECTION PUSHES EAST AFTER 15/00Z, WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
03Z BEFORE DISSIPATING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT, EXISTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
AFFECTING KLWB AND KBCB. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFIC VSBY
VALUES, SINCE AFTER A DAY OF DRYING, THE GROUND MAY NOT BE AS
MOIST, AND WE WILL SEE INCREASING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. BUT THERE
IS A SMALL, NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF VSBYS LOWER THAN 3SM. ANY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME
MIXING.
WESTERLY WINDS BECOME CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING BY
13-15Z TO 5-7 KTS. AFTER 17-20Z, EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO
8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
GOING BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY LATE NIGHT FOG AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/SH
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