165
FXUS61 KRNK 141700
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA HAS BEEN SLOW TODAY AND THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ONLY THE NC/VA PIEDMONTS HAVING
INCREASED BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE
STRUGGLED TO INCREASE BEYOND THE LOW 60S TODAY, WHICH MAY STILL
INHIBIT STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. THIS IS ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT IN
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NW NC AND NE TN BORDER CURRENTLY THAT
ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE FROM A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS IN EASTERN TN TO A LOWER THETA-E AIRMASS
IN WESTERN NC DUE TO THE 5-8 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS.
WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL OVERALL LEAD TO LOWER AVAILABLE CAPE AS
THESE STORMS ROLL OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THEY MAY STILL MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO AID IN SOME LIFT AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SHEAR COMPARED
TO TWO DAYS AGO. AS THESE STORMS DO PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, THE AFOREMENTIONED DEWPOINTS INCREASE, WHICH WILL
OVERALL INCREASE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES PROVIDING A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE STORMS LATER TODAY. THIS IS
CONTINUED TO BE SUPPORTED BY HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY ENTER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT TODAY. STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS,
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDING GUIDANCE INDICATING INVERTED-V PROFILES
AND DCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEK.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL SET IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THANKS TO A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
PUSH INTO THE REGION MAKING FOR A 3 DAY STRETCH OF LIMITED TO NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S/50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY RETURNING LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CUT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5 DAYS AWAY, DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, AND WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE EVENT APPROACHES IN
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NC, AND A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS ARE NEARING SOUTHEAST WV, BUT NOT IMPACTING AREA
TERMINALS YET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH ABOUT 23Z, GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, SO WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT ANY OF THE
AREA TERMINALS, KLYH AND KDAN HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN CAN LEAD TO RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT,
GETTING TO KBLF AND KLWB BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. NOT CONFIDENT HOW FAR
EAST THESE MAKE IT , AS GUIDANCE HAS THEM DIMINISHING AS THEY NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW CLOUDS, MVFR TO IFR, LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
FOR KLWB AND KBLF UNTIL ABOUT 14Z MONDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, BUT THINKING WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. OTHERWISE,
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY GUST OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT, THEN TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT, AFTER 06Z. GUSTS
WANE AFTER 12Z, AND LOOK TO STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page