766
FXUS61 KRNK 142321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. WILL
TRIM LAYERS OF WESTERN COUNTIES AS THREAT DECREASES.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
2) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
AS EVENING FALLS, MODEST CAPE WILL HANG OVER THE REGION, MAINTAINING
JUST ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC FUEL TO KEEP THE SKIES UNSETTLED. MEANWHILE,
AN AREA OF HIGH DCAPE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH, THREATENING MORE ROBUST STORMS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.
FURTHER TO THE WEST, A LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH ALONG A COLD FRONT
CROSSING WEST VIRGINIA, THOUGH ITS INTENSITY WILL NOT LAST. AS THESE
STORMS TRACK EASTWARD AND ENCOUNTER A MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS,
THEY WILL STEADILY LOSE THEIR STRENGTH. BY THE TIME THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ARRIVE, THE ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY WILL LARGELY SPEND ITSELF, AND
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO A
QUIET NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEK.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL SET IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THANKS TO A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
PUSH INTO THE REGION MAKING FOR A 3 DAY STRETCH OF LIMITED TO NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S/50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY RETURNING LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CUT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5 DAYS AWAY, DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, AND WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE EVENT APPROACHES IN
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATE THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS IN TANDEM WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL REACH KBLF AND KLWB BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z, THOUGH IT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THEY
WILL MANAGE TO PUSH. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH AND FALL APART AS THEY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. IN THEIR WAKE,
LOW CLOUDS WILL SETTLE OVER THE TERRAIN, LOCKING KLWB AND KBLF INTO
A CEILING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 14Z
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD. ONCE THESE MORNING CLOUDS BREAK, DRY WEATHER
WILL FINALLY TAKE OVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WIND WILL PLAY A NOTICEABLE ROLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CUTS
THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTS WILL KICK UP BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.
THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 12Z, AND GUSTS LOOK
TO STAY CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, GIVING WAY TO A MUCH CALMER MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
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