785
FXUS61 KRNK 151814
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINT FORECAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH WILL IN TURN
RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR
FRIDAY PER HINT THAT GULF COAST MOISTURE MAY BECOME MORE
INVOLVED IN OUR END OF THE WEEK FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO START OFF THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER THAN NORMAL TO START THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING TREND.
REFRESHINGLY COOL AIRMASS FROM CANADA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY, FEATURING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40%.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MONDAY GOING CALM
BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH
READINGS NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SOUTH WIND WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MOISTURE, THE DEWPOINTS TRENDING
UP ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY.
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A
SEVERE RISK MAY UNFOLD ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-64.
ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST.
SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF THE
COUNTRY MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE THURSDAY COLD
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FORMATION INTO A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH MAY ACT TO SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THURSDAY'S OHIO VALLEY FRONT, A CHAIN
EFFECT THAT COULD DELAY THE FRONTS PASSAGE AND CAUSE RAIN
THREAT TO LINGER OVER OUR AREA LONGER... INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE SLOWER SOLUTION, BUT STILL
ADVERTISING A DRY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BROKEN
CLOUD DECK THAT DEVELOPED LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
FORMED JUST ABOVE MVFR RESTRICTION LEVELS, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE THIS CRITICAL THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO VARIABLE/CALM
ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, AND REMAIN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT, AND SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS BLF AND LWB. BCB AND ROA LOOK
TO REMAIN VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS AT LWB AND BCB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RIVER FOG NEAR LWB TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL SUB-VFR THU-FRI.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...EB
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