500
FXUS61 KRNK 152309
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
709 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EVENING AVIATION UPDATED.
AFTERNOON UPDATE: LOWERED DEWPOINT FORECAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WHICH WILL IN TURN RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY PER HINT THAT GULF COAST MOISTURE MAY
BECOME MORE INVOLVED IN OUR END OF THE WEEK FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO START OFF THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER THAN NORMAL TO START THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING TREND.
REFRESHINGLY COOL AIRMASS FROM CANADA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY, FEATURING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40%.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MONDAY GOING CALM
BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH
READINGS NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SOUTH WIND WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MOISTURE, THE DEWPOINTS TRENDING
UP ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY.
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A
SEVERE RISK MAY UNFOLD ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-64.
ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST.
SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF THE
COUNTRY MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE THURSDAY COLD
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FORMATION INTO A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH MAY ACT TO SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THURSDAY'S OHIO VALLEY FRONT, A CHAIN
EFFECT THAT COULD DELAY THE FRONTS PASSAGE AND CAUSE RAIN
THREAT TO LINGER OVER OUR AREA LONGER... INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE SLOWER SOLUTION, BUT STILL
ADVERTISING A DRY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH A FEW BRIEF CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. THE
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY LINGERING BETWEEN 4,000 AND
6,000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS EVENING COOLING SETS IN AND
ROBS THE CLOUDS OF THEIR DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION, CAUSING THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DIE DOWN. ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS, WINDS WILL GO CALM OR VARIABLE, WHILE THE PIEDMONT REGION
MAINTAINS A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THE
LOCAL WIND PATTERNS, BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
TO THE PIEDMONT, GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BLUEFIELD (BLF) AND
LEWISBURG (LWB), AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO BLACKSBURG (BCB) AND
ROANOKE (ROA). TOMORROW WILL ALSO BRING A BLANKET OF THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SKY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS TO LEWISBURG AROUND DAWN
BEFORE BURNING OFF AND RETURNING THE AREA TO CLEAR, BEAUTIFUL FLYING
WEATHER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RIVER FOG NEAR LWB TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL SUB-VFR THU-FRI.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...RCS
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