879
FXUS61 KRNK 160516
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
116 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO START OFF THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER THAN NORMAL TO START THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING TREND.
REFRESHINGLY COOL AIRMASS FROM CANADA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY, FEATURING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40%.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MONDAY GOING CALM
BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WITH
READINGS NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SOUTH WIND WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MOISTURE, THE DEWPOINTS TRENDING
UP ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY.
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A
SEVERE RISK MAY UNFOLD ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-64.
ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST.
SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF THE
COUNTRY MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE THURSDAY COLD
FRONT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FORMATION INTO A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH MAY ACT TO SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THURSDAY'S OHIO VALLEY FRONT, A CHAIN
EFFECT THAT COULD DELAY THE FRONTS PASSAGE AND CAUSE RAIN
THREAT TO LINGER OVER OUR AREA LONGER... INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE SLOWER SOLUTION, BUT STILL
ADVERTISING A DRY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z/17.
EXCEPTION BEING SOME FOG AT 1-3SM AT LWB AROUND 09-12Z.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE BUT AIRMASS IS DRY, SO MAY NOT HAVE ANY.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF
BLF/BCB THIS AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS VERY ISOLATED. A CU FIELD IS
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH SCT/BKN CIGS IN THE 4-8KFT RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WILL HAVE VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THU-FRI WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AT THE MOMENT TRENDING DRY AND VFR OUTSIDE ANY FOG IN
THE MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...RCS/WP
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