738
FXUS61 KRNK 300715
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
315 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. HEAT GRADUALLY RAMPS UP THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HEAT RELATED HAZARDS THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT RISK INCREASES TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
2) ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT RISK INCREASES TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS
THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL FACILITATE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS NEAR
70 TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 100 TO 110 IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
MOISTURE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND HELPING TO MITIGATE THE HEAT.
CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BE LESS OF AN IMPACT WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
AS THE SUBSIDENCE GETS STRONGER WHICH WILL BE MORE CLOUD
PROHIBITIVE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FULL INSOLATION WILL
THEN LEAD TO HOTTER TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ADDITION TO WARM
MUGGY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.
CALL TO ACTION: THOSE THAT HAVE TO WORK OUTSIDE OR WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES AND RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES, SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT
RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR CONDITIONED OR
SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN DOWNWARD
MOTION (AKA SUBSIDENCE) WITH INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE 5-10KFT
AGL, THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OR CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROHIBITIVE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT VCNTY OF
THE MOUNTAINS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT MOST
FOLKS AS A WHOLE WILL EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY (ALBEIT LOW) WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY WITH MEAN WINDS CARRYING
ANY CELLS TO THE SOUTH...MEAN WIND IS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, AND LEADING TO MORE OF A CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CLOUD LAYER VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST/HAZE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 13Z/9AM...BUT STILL MAINTAINING SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES OF
4-7KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH
COUNTRY WITH MEAN WIND CARRYING CELLS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT
10-15 MPH.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EXCEPTION
OF SOME PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING VFR
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. PRIMARY FLIGHT
CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
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