346
FXUS61 KRNK 302313
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TOMORROW FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT RISK INCREASES TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA.
2) ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT RISK INCREASES TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS
THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TOMORROW FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL FACILITATE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS NEAR
70 TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 100 TO 107 IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE
SUBSIDENCE GETS STRONGER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HOTTER TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ADDITION
TO WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.
CALL TO ACTION: THOSE THAT HAVE TO WORK OUTSIDE OR WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES AND RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES, SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT
RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR CONDITIONED OR
SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN DOWNWARD
MOTION (AKA SUBSIDENCE) WITH INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE 5-10KFT
AGL, THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OR CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROHIBITIVE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG AND
NEAR OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP, BUT THE LIFETIME OF THESE CELLS HAS BEEN BRIEF. ONE
STORM DID SEEM TO BREAK THE CAP OVER BLAND AND WYTHE COUNTIES,
BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. MAY SEE A FEW MORE OF THESE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE THEY FADE AWAY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE STRUGGLE TO GET CONVECTION GOING
WILL BE EVEN HARDER WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, AND LEADING TO MORE OF A CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE, AND WILL DO SO FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, ENDING 00Z THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM ARE POSSIBLE AT KLWB AND KBLF, AND
3 TO 4SM AT KBCB. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO, WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUITE DAY ON TAP, THOUGH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS LOOKS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS, AND THUS LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE TAF
SITES.
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT, AND THEN MOSTLY 5 TO 7
KNOTS, OR LESS, BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND. PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
AN ESE WIND DEVELOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH MORE OF A NE WIND FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW 10 KTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVER THE WEEKEND
WINDS BECOME MORE GUSTY AND TREND WNW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CLIMATE
SOME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THIS
WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH
THE YEAR THE RECORD OCCURRED.
07/01
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1931 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/1970 76/1933
DANVILLE 102/1945 76/1990
BLUEFIELD 93/1959 70/1970
BLACKSBURG 95/1931 69/1897
07/02
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1954 74/1970
LYNCHBURG 99/1898 76/1913
DANVILLE 101/1925 75/1931
BLUEFIELD 95/1954 69/2014
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 68/1931
07/03
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 97/2012 75/1980
LYNCHBURG 97/2012 74/1903
DANVILLE 100/1955 80/1922
BLUEFIELD 92/1911 72/1998
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 71/1941
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
033>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...AS/PM/SH
CLIMATE...RCS
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