841
FXUS61 KRNK 020730
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED INTO WILKES COUNTY OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND WILL REPEAT ON FRIDAY FROM 11AM TO 8PM.
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
DUE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES FOR
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS HEAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS HEAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF VERTICALLY STACKED HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUE THE HEAT WAVE TODAY AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER
OF A LARGE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER US AND BARELY MOVES FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TODAY AND
TOMORROW (FRIDAY) WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID-90S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND WELL OVER 100 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR TODAY REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 11AM - 8PM AND HAS EXPANDED INTO
WILKES COUNTY. A BULGE OF RELATIVELY HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE
PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 110
DEGREES (EVEN IN SPITE OF MIXING) AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR BUCKINGHAM COUNTY TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SIMILAR, IF NOT BARELY WARMER, CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY SO
THE SAME HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
EXPANSION OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING INTO OTHER COUNTIES IN THE
PIEDMONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA TO JUSTIFY A HEAT ADVISORY BUT THAT
DOES NOT MEAN IT WON'T BE HOT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE UP
TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL.
THE PUBLIC IS REMINDED TO TAKE THIS WEATHER VERY SERIOUSLY. WHILE IT
IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU ARE SAFE FROM HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS, AND
KNOW THE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN RETURN NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STARTS TO SHOW SIGN OF DECAY BY
SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL DISASSEMBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE HIGH SO THE HOT CONDITIONS
MAY LAST WELL INTO MONDAY AS THE HEAT INDEX MAY STILL BE JUST
OVER 100 IN THE PIEDMONT. STILL, THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND DISTURBANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY TO
OUR AREA AND PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLIEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF US 460 ON FRIDAY BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE LOW (20-40%) AND IS OVERSHADOWED BY THE DANGEROUS
HEAT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG EARLY
MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 5KTS. IT WILL ALSO BE
HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...
CONDITIONS LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES
AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR UNTIL THEN.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 87 TO 95 FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS AND 95 TO 102 FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS SUCH
AS ROA/LYH/DAN. THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE WITH AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE SIMILAR TO TAKING OFF
FROM A HIGHER ALTITUDE RUNWAY.
WINDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 KTS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. OVER THE WEEKEND WINDS BECOME MORE GUSTY AND TREND
WNW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
CLIMATE
SOME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THIS
WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH
THE YEAR THE RECORD OCCURRED.
07/02
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1954 74/1970
LYNCHBURG 99/1898 76/1913
DANVILLE 101/1925 75/1931
BLUEFIELD 95/1954 69/2014
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 68/1931
07/03
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 97/2012 75/1980
LYNCHBURG 97/2012 74/1903
DANVILLE 100/1955 80/1922
BLUEFIELD 92/1911 72/1998
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 71/1941
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>046-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043>046-058-059.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ047.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ047.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...RCS
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