521
FXUS61 KRNK 030619
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
219 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS HEAT LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS HEAT LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF VERTICALLY STACKED HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES CONTINUE THE HEAT WAVE TODAY AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER US AND BARELY
MOVES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES IN THE MID-90S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WELL OVER 100 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN UNTIL 8 PM
AND ANOTHER IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM. A BULGE OF
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES (EVEN IN SPITE OF
MIXING) AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW
INCLUDES BUCKINGHAM, APPOMATTOX, CAMPBELL, CHARLOTTE,
PITTSYLVANIA, AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. IT IS LIKELY THAT SIMILAR
HAZARDS WILL BE IN EFFECT SATURDAY, JULY 4, AND SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO DECAY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID 80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES DROP EVEN FURTHER INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE PUBLIC IS REMINDED TO TAKE THIS WEATHER VERY SERIOUSLY.
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU
ARE SAFE FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS, AND KNOW THE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION
AND HEAT STROKE. IF HIKING CONSIDER GOING EARLY IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
RETURN TOMORROW INTO NEXT MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND
DISTURBANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY TO OUR AREA AND PROVIDE MULTIPLE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIMITED TOMORROW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION FIGHTING A
LID OF HOT AIR. THAT SAID, MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1000
J/KG FOR PARTS OF SW VA BLUE RIDGE AREA AND INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS. BULK SHEAR IS UNDER 10 KNOTS SO EXPECTING MOSTLY WEAK
SINGLE CELL/MULTICELL STORMS, HOWEVER IF INSTABILITY INCREASES
MORE THAN FORECAST WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN HAZARD DAMAGING WINDS, AS WELL AS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 5 KTS. IT WILL ALSO BE
HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...
CONDITIONS LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES
AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR AND LCL IFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE
NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE HEAT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE HOT. THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE WITH AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE SIMILAR TO TAKING OFF FROM A
HIGHER ALTITUDE RUNWAY.
CLIMATE
SOME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THIS
WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH
THE YEAR THE RECORD OCCURRED.
07/03
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 97/2012 75/1980
LYNCHBURG 97/2012 74/1903
DANVILLE 100/1955 80/1922
BLUEFIELD 92/1911 72/1998
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 71/1941
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...SH
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