600
FXUS61 KRNK 030829
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
429 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING EXPANDED INTO CASWELL AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES
TODAY.
NEW HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 11AM TO 8PM ON SATURDAY.
NEW EXTREME HEAT WARNING ISSUED FROM 11AM TO 8PM ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
WITH A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURES ABOVE US AND A LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE
INTO TODAY AND TOMORROW (SATURDAY). HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO BE
OVER 105 DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ABOVE 110 DEGREES DEEP
IN THE PIEDMONT. TO REFLECT THIS, ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
HEAT HEADLINES. FOR TODAY, THE HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS STAY IN PLACE WITH AN EXCEPTION TO CASWELL AND ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO CRACK BY SATURDAY, SIMILAR SUMMER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AND THE HEAT HEADLINES TODAY APPLY
TO THE SAME COUNTIES AND TIMEFRAME TOMORROW. ONCE AGAIN, THE PUBLIC
IS ENCOURAGED THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO USE EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS,
AND KNOW THE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
WHAT SETS THE SCORCHING HEAT DAYS OF TODAY AND SATURDAY FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TODAY THERE IS A
MODEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BE PULSE BASED AND BRING THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LACK OF SHEAR IN THE AREA WILL PREVENT
ANY STORM ORGANIZATION SO MOST STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE
LONG. THAT BEING SAID, STORMS TODAY WILL STILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH HEAVY SUBSIDENCE JUST TO GET GOING.
SATURDAY'S STORM CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. ON THIS DAY, THE DISTRIBUTION OF
SCATTERED STORMS LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS THE DAMAGING
WIND GUST THREAT. AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
INCREASED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE OF A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION.
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORMS, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH WHICH
TRANSLATES INTO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 5 KTS. IT WILL ALSO BE
HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...
CONDITIONS LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES
AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR AND LCL IFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE
NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE HEAT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE HOT. THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE WITH AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE SIMILAR TO TAKING OFF FROM A
HIGHER ALTITUDE RUNWAY.
CLIMATE
SOME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THIS
WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH
THE YEAR THE RECORD OCCURRED.
07/03
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 97/2012 75/1980
LYNCHBURG 97/2012 74/1903
DANVILLE 100/1955 80/1922
BLUEFIELD 92/1911 72/1998
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 71/1941
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-059.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ003-004-019-020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ003-004-
019-020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...SH
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