380
FXUS61 KRNK 041056
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
656 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED. HEADLINES FOR HEAT REMAIN THE
SAME. CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HEAT WAVE LIKELY ENDING
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HEAT WAVE LIKELY ENDING
NEXT WEEK.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN, MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND HEAT INDICES OVER 110 IN THE PIEDMONT. WHILE ADDITIONAL RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, THEY WILL BE RACING
AGAINST THE CLOCK TO BEAT THE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THE
STORMS WILL BE HIT OR MISS BUT MAY EXPAND ENOUGH CLOUD COVER
TO PUT A LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IF THE FORM EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK
DOWN ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SMALL DECREASE
IN OVERALL TEMPERATURES. HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE
TOWARDS NORMAL AVERAGES. BY TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE, ATTENTION IS GROWING TOWARDS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING DAY. AS
MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 1, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION, STARTING AT AROUND 2PM. DCAPE
VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE STORMS MEANS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR LOCATION. THE
ABSENCE OF WIND SHEAR MEANS MANY STORMS WILL BE PULSE BASED AND
BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. EVEN SO, PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-2.0
INCHES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MOST OF THESE STORMS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. CAM MODELS DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERMIT THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES AND THE STORMY PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A BLOB OF VORTICITY TO OUR WEST MAY BE SENT THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS VORTICITY WILL BE FORCED THROUGH BY A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO THE HAZARD OF WIND GUSTS IN THE SOUTHEAST WV
AND VA COUNTIES. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON A NEARLY DAILY BASIS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BEFORE 14Z/10AM,
PRIMARILY AT LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CAVEAT WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH TEMPO
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 22Z/6PM.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 5 KTS, BUT DO LOOKOUT
FOR ROGUE WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...CONDITIONS LEADING TO
LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES
AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
TEMPO MVFR AND SOME IFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE NIGHT
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY,
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE LAST DAY WHERE EXTREME TEMPERATURES
ARE A CONCERN.
CLIMATE
ALL BUT BLUEFIELD BROKE RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY.
MORE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR
REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH THE YEAR THE
RECORD OCCURRED.
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ022>024-032-033-043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ003-019-020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...SH
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