713
FXUS61 KRNK 041635
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED. HEADLINES FOR HEAT REMAIN THE
SAME. CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HEAT WAVE LIKELY ENDING
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HEAT WAVE LIKELY ENDING
NEXT WEEK.
WHILE 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS STARTING TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN
SOME TODAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOLIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 22-
25 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY; HOWEVER, 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP SLIGHTLY INTO THE
20-23 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION, AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
MANY LOCATIONS TO REACH 100 IN THE PIEDMONT, AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S COMPARED TO MID 90S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY, HEAT HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ISSUED GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. WHILE THIS MAY BE THE CASE, FOLKS SHOULD
STILL BE VIGILANT WHILE HEADING OUTDOORS, AND CONTINUE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS TO COOL OFF.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY LOOK TO DROP BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BY
MONDAY; HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
SEASONAL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
ALSO START TO FREELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE BLOCKING
RIDGE NOW DISPLACED SOUTH AND EAST. WITH PWATS LINGERING ABOVE 1.2-
1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
DAYS, STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. FROM THIS INITIATION POINT, STORMS WILL LIKELY
BLOW OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS, AND LOOK TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT.
THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
GIVEN THE EXTREME HEAT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND DRY AIR THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS, DCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AREAWIDE, WITH VALUES IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, AND SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERE WINDS FROM MICROBURSTS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EACH
DAY, WHICH WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
EXPECTED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE EACH DAY,
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO INCREASE, WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME VERY EFFICIENT, WITH WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES LIKELY
OCCURRING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES GET INTO THE VICINITY
OF TERMINALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF ERRATIC WINDS, AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL OVERHEAD,
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. WITH CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE PRESENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM 10-14Z, AT THE VERY LEAST AT
LWB, BUT MAY SPREAD TO BCB WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA
TODAY LEADING TO POTENTIAL MOIST SOILS. WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT MAY HANG
AROUND OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD PREVENT THESE RESTRICTIONS FROM
DEVELOPING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM CURRENTLY.
EXTREME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE...CONDITIONS LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS,
DECREASE CLIMB RATES AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR AND
SOME IFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY, WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE LAST DAY WHERE EXTREME TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN.
CLIMATE
ALL BUT BLUEFIELD BROKE RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY.
MORE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR
REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH THE YEAR THE
RECORD OCCURRED.
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ022>024-032-
033-043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ034-
035-044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003-019-020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
CLIMATE...SH
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