174
FXUS61 KRNK 051040
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION AND FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEASONAL
AVERAGES RETURNING THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES 2: DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEASONAL
AVERAGES RETURNING THIS WEEK.
THE CONTINUAL BREAKDOWN OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE HEAT
WAVE'S DEMISE, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN CONDITIONS WON'T BE HOT.
HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN THE LOWER 80S TO MID-90S
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE IS DEPENDENT ON WHEN
AFTERNOON STORMS ARRIVE. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH AS DANVILLE,
BROKE RECORDS BUT OTHERS, LIKE BLACKSBURG, DID NOT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND STORM CONVECTION.
A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC SETUP IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN, NO RECORDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BROKEN
AND NO COUNTY WILL EVEN REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NEVERTHELESS, COUNTIES IN THE PIEDMONT COULD STILL HAVE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES SO CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED. AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES, HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
KEY MESSAGES 2: DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THESE STORMS WILL START POPPING OUT
AROUND 2PM AND CARRY A DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. THERE WILL STILL
BE CAPE TO GO AROUND AND NEARLY ZERO SHEAR BUT THE RELATIVELY
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS PASSAGE OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN
THE COMING DAYS WILL PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL PROJECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH BUT RECENT GUIDANCE HAS THE TROUGH
ELONGATED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, RATHER THAN HAVE ITS SOUTHERN
MOST TIP OF VORTICITY BREAK OFF AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S
FORECAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS CHANGE IS WE MAY EXPERIENCE A
TROUGH PASSAGE AFTER ALL WHICH WILL HAVE DOWNSTREAM
IMPLICATIONS ON WIND SHEAR AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
LASTLY, PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 INCHES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEK AND BRING AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK TO THE REGION. THE
STORMS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND THESE
TYPES OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TODAY AND THIS WEEK. THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAIN MEANS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS ON WHO
GETS THE MOST RAIN AND RECEIVE THE LARGEST THREAT OF FLOODING.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (AND PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF VA) FOR TODAY AND THE ENTIRE REGION
TOMORROW.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER AN LINGERING
FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE, START AROUND 2PM, AND CARRY THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, EVENTUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, BUT THEN DIMINISHING. OVERNIGHT FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAINFALL DURING
THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MOTIF IS PROJECTED TO REPEAT IN
THE COMING DAYS SO ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SEESAW
INTERACTION BETWEEN VFR IN THE LATE MORNINGS AND SUB-VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...BMG/CG
CLIMATE...CG/SH
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