059
FXUS61 KRNK 051623
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1223 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION AND FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED. CHANCES ARE
INCREASING FOR DAILY OCCURRENCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
BLOCKING RIDGE NOW DISPLACED SOUTH AND EAST. THESE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO AID IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA,
HELPING TO DEVELOP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH PWATS
LINGERING ABOVE 1.2-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
BASED HEATING ENDS. MOST DAYS, STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. FROM THIS INITIATION
POINT, STORMS WILL LIKELY BLOW OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS, AND LOOK TO
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
MONDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
GIVEN THE EXTREME HEAT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND DRY AIR THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS, DCAPE VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, WITH VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, AND SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERE WINDS FROM MICROBURSTS TODAY,
AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
WHILE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE EACH DAY,
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO INCREASE, WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME VERY EFFICIENT, WITH WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES LIKELY
OCCURRING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES GET INTO THE VICINITY
OF TERMINALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF ERRATIC WINDS, AND
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WITH SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL
OVERHEAD, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM 10-14Z, AT THE
VERY LEAST AT LWB, BUT MAY SPREAD TO BCB IF TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH
BY THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...CONDITIONS
LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES AND WEIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. THIS WOULD LIKELY ONLY AFFECT LYH, DAN, AND POSSIBLE
ROA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY
FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR AND SOME IFR
DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY, WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE LAST DAY WHERE EXTREME TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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