726
FXUS61 KRNK 060711
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION AND FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST, WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING REFLECTING LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES 1: PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES 1: PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE DELMARVA, ALLOWING DEEP
MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT,
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, WILL PROVIDE THE
TRIGGER FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON,
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING.
GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BOTH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH RAIN FALLING LOCALLY AT RATES
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, BUT HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THIS MAY
OCCUR TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 DURING EARLY EVENING, WHEN
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED, ALLOWING STORMS
TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY PROGRESS EAST TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95.
AS MENTIONED, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG HEATING IS FORECASTED FOR
TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RISING IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES
IN SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.
THAT STATED, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND WILL FORGO
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. REGARDLESS, PEOPLE SHOULD STILL
EXERCISE ALL PRECAUTIONS IF OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME TODAY, SUCH AS DRINKING PLENTY OF COOL NON-ALCOHOLIC
FLUIDS, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AND CHECKING ON
THOSE THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
STORMS WILL REIGNITE ON TUESDAY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON, AGAIN
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A
PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BOUNDARY SETTLING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY, HOLDING HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TRIGGER INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
POCKETS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF FOG DEVELOPING WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
13Z/9AM.
WINDS WILL START THE DAY FROM THE WEST, WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 10
KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES, ESPECIALLY THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE
THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY AIRPORTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z, WITH ACTIVITY PASSING ACROSS AND THEN
EXITING THE AREA WITHIN 60 TO 90 MINUTES. STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIMITING VISIBILITY
TO 1/4SM OR LESS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORMS EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING MOST AIRPORTS AT SOME POINT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS, THOUGH MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR AND SOME IFR DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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