979
FXUS61 KRNK 210029
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
829 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS TO KEEP UP WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA AND HOW IT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EVENING AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FRONT TO LEAD TO STORM CHANCES INTO
MIDWEEK, WITH TUESDAY BEING THE HIGHER COVERAGE.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MORE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED OVER THE REGION, WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE IT. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BECOMING POSITIONED FROM WESTERN PA TO TN AND NORTHERN AR/OK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT, SURFACE
PREFRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC VICINITY. DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S.
THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
40-60 KT FLOW AT 500 MB, AND 30-50 KT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WITH FAVORABLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS BECOMING ELONGATED ABOVE 2-3 KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT A MIX
OF SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR MORE BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. 65+ KT
GUSTS COULD OCCUR IF A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE AND
STRONGER COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND
LIMITED LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS
LOW. SO IN GENERAL DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE MAIN THREAT AS
USUAL FOR OUR AREA, WITH ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA ALONG I-64. HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
WE GET ANY SUPERCELLS, BUT WOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE SIZES.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP IN A
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER PROVIDING A FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF 460.
SPECIFICS ON SEVERITY AND IMPACTS EXPECTED WILL COME WITH FUTURE
UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STRONG SUMMERTIME FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING A LARGE PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO OVERALL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL ALSO LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE DURING THE PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY. HIGHS LOOK
TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL PRIMARILY BE RELEGATED TO MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND LOOK TO
REMAIN ISOLATED, WHERE OROGRAPHICAL LIFT CAN ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT
DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA, ASIDE FROM WHERE STORMS
ARE IMPACTING TERMINALS. BCB/DAN/ROA HAVE ALL HAD TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS RECENTLY IN VSBY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN IS
GRADUALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT LYH
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH LOWER CHANCES AFTER 06Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM LWB, WHICH
COULD REDUCE TO 1/4SM BETWEEN 09-12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
WINDS INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10-13 KNOTS, GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. VFR LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION BEGINS TO FORM. ALL TERMINALS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE, PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LWB/LYH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO
SEE SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO BEING FARTHEST NORTH. STORMS BEGIN TO
WIND DOWN RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR
BLF/LWB.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING LIKELY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AREA-WIDE WHEN IMPACTING A TERMINAL. LWB MAY BE JUST FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID RAIN, BUT EVEN SO, WOULD LIKELY FOG IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH NO RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF DAN, THOUGH ONLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FOG
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT LWB.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...JCB
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