089
FXUS61 KRNK 221734
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
THE MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GOING TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHER POTENTIAL
SOUTHERN VA INTO NC. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
A FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN VA INTO FAR SW VA. BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHERN
VA/NORTHERN NC. DECENT LOW LEVEL SRH LEADING TO A FEW SPINNING
STORMS, THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE AIRMASS SOMEWHAT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING UNTIL A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT SINKS TO THE NC COAST INTO SC BY LATE THURSDAY. STILL
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MORE ON THE HYDRO/FLOODING IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND AT TIMES AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STARTING
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE LOWS STAY CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CEILINGS WILL BE VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON SHOWERS/FEW STORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA. VSBYS WILL
ALSO BE REDUCED TO 1-3SM IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN THIS HAPPENING IS DAN, THEN LYH/BCB/ROA, LESS CHANCE AT
LWB/BLF. THERE SHOULD BE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT
SO LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO HIGHER END MVFR AT ROA/LYH/BCB.
DAN MAY STAY IN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN FOG MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT IF IT CLEARS ENOUGH WHILE CIGS STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOULD HAVE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT BLF/LWB AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS LEAVING BEHIND PATTERN FOR STRATUS/FOG AFTER 06Z.
ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR/VFR
CIG FOR MOST BY 18Z THU.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE AT LYH/DAN AFTER 10Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NOT GOING TO FULLY DRY OUT BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, EXPECT VFR. ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WHERE IT RAINS AS WELL.
HYDROLOGY
KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THOUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ALONG
THE 460 CORRIDOR WILL SEE LESS COVERAGE BUT STILL PWATS ARE
RUNNING HIGH AND ANY SHOWER/STORM WILL BE RAIN EFFICIENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM EASTERN TN THROUGH SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON.. RAINFALL RATES THAT AT TIMES MAY EXCEED 2"/HR COULD
CREATE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" OF RAIN.
AREAS TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AREAS AND
MOUNTAINOUS/HILLY TERRAIN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>018-022-
023-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...AS/EB/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page