741
FXUS61 KRNK 222355
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING..
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ADDITIONAL POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
A FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA, NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT, ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE MAINLY ALONG
THIS FRONT, BUT ALSO PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE, LIKE TODAY, MAY
CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA OVER
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS SUCH, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WHILE FOG WAS IN THE FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, OUR LATEST UPDATE WILL REFLECT GREATER
COVERAGE, WITH DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE THIS EVENING.
MORE ON THE HYDRO/FLOODING IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND AT TIMES AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STARTING
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE LOWS STAY CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDE RANGE FOR CEILING HEIGHTS, OR LACK THEREOF A CEILING,
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, GENERALLY CONDITIONS
ARE MAINLY VFR. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT, EXPECT A TREND
FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDNIGHT.BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA MAY
HAVE A NUMBER OF TERMINALS WITH IFR OR LOWER FOR CEILINGS. SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KUKF-KMTV-KW78 LINE. A WIDE RANGE OF VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER ONES. FOG/MIST
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AGAIN
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
ON THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF NC. HERE, CEILINGS MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO BETTER THAN MVFR. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
FOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM MID-MORNING AND ONWARD.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTY AND VARIABLE WIND ARE
POSSIBLE, WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. ON THURSDAY, LOOK FOR LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO VEER
EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NOT GOING TO FULLY DRY OUT BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, EXPECT VFR. ALWAYS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WHERE IT RAINS AS WELL. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KUKF-KMTV-KW78 LINE.
HYDROLOGY
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA,
BUT FOR THOSE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WILKESBORO TO MARTINSVILLE TO CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
LATER TONIGHT, MAY PROMPT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
AREAS TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE URBAN AREAS,
MOUNTAINOUS/HILLY TERRAIN, AND THOSE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN TODAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ032-043-044-058-
059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS/WP
AVIATION...DS/WP
HYDROLOGY...DS
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