447
FXUS61 KRNK 231724
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
124 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER AND COOLER TODAY.
2) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRIER AND COOLER TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, AND LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THAT
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
LOCAL AREA, AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
TO UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC, SO IT WILL
STAY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY, UNTIL SOME MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BRING SOME SUN. HOWEVER, NOT ENOUGH
SUN TO HELP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE PIEDMONT.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC, AND SO NOT CONFIDENT IN REDEVELOPMENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS LATER TODAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
AREA TOMORROW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING SOME
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA, AND SO EXPECTING THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY, AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN RESUMES OVER THE US, WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
PERSISTING IN THE EAST AND A 500MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN WEST. SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM
VIA RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WHILE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
DROP INTO THE AREA IN THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL COMBINE TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOMORROW, AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW,
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FROM THE MIDWEST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
IS LOW, GIVEN DIFFERENCES AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AND THE
GEFS ML SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS LOW PROBABILITY, BETWEEN 15% AND
30%, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, SO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN LOW END VFR AND MVFR, WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE CEILINGS ARE BELOW 1KFT. MOST
LINGERING FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED, BUT SOME SPOTTY DZ AND BR
HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS.
SKIES OVERALL TODAY WILL BE BKN TO OVC MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
AND NORTHERN NC, NEARER TO A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS,
AND SCT TO BKN ELSEWHERE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS LAYER
FOR SOUTHEAST WV AND PARTS OF WEST AND CENTRAL VA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND
MOISTURE ALONG IT, AND SOME COOLING OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS WILL
ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BELOW THAT,
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY THROUGH TODAY, AND 10
KNOTS OR LESS, WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INCREASE FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS
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