361
FXUS61 KRNK 241737
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WAS
COINCIDENT WITH SATURATION BELOW 12KFT ON THIS MORNING'S KFCX
SOUNDING. FLOW FROM 925 MB TO ABOUT 850MB WAS FROM THE SE, WHILE
SURFACE WINDS WERE MORE ENE WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WAS WEDGING IN.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS. STORMS ARE
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY, AS THIS IS MORE OF A WINTERTIME STRATIFORM
SET UP, SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. MODERATE RAIN
IS POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY TO POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TO THE WEST, DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWLY FILTERING IN
AND WILL LIMIT RAINFALL.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED AGAIN WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE, SO MOST FOLKS SHOULD SEE A BREAK. NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER
BREAK FROM DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS.
WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR BOTH A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
SPC ON DAY 5 (TUESDAY), AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WPC WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. UCAR'S MEDIUM
RANGE CONVECTIVE MODEL IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING TUESDAY FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, WHICH WOULD CONSIST OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
AFTER TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 80S FOR MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BY
MONDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE
REGIONS. EVEN A FEW LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
GUSTY WSW SURFACE FLOW FOR ROANOKE AND THE PIEDMONT AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AREA TAF SITES RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT KEEPING STRATUS AND DRIZZLE
AROUND. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TOMORROW, BUT LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TO THE WEST,
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BUT IT WILL OCCUR
LATE, POSSIBLY AFTER 25/18Z. WINDS THERE WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM
THE WNW. FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING ONCE AGAIN,
WITH MORE SCATTERS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM, MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY, WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 KTS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN UPPER
SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. TUESDAY HAS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page