402
FXUS61 KRNK 242345
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS EVENING, WAVES OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING. ON SATURDAY,
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH AND WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY TO POINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TO THE WEST, DRIER AIR WILL BE
SLOWLY FILTERING IN AND WILL LIMIT RAINFALL.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED AGAIN WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE, SO MOST FOLKS SHOULD SEE A BREAK. NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER
BREAK FROM DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS.
WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR BOTH A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
SPC ON DAY 5 (TUESDAY), AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WPC WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. UCAR'S MEDIUM
RANGE CONVECTIVE MODEL IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING TUESDAY FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, WHICH WOULD CONSIST OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REACH THE LOW 80S FOR MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BY MONDAY, AND MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE REGIONS. EVEN A FEW
LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN GUSTY WSW SURFACE FLOW
FOR ROANOKE AND THE PIEDMONT AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A GENERALLY LIGHT NE THROUGH E LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN AN
UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE, YIELDING A RANGE CEILINGS
HEIGHT (IFR THROUGH LOW END VFR) AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. VISIBILITIES CURRENTLY AT MOST LOCATIONS
ARE STILL VFR.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, WE EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME, EXCEPT
THERE WILL BE DOWNWARD TREND IN BOTH CEILING HEIGHTS AND
VISIBILITIES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE BOTH IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID-MORNING. CEILINGS WILL STAY IFR EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY THE MID-AFTERNOON, BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY THE EARLY EVENING. A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS
YIELDING ONLY LAYERS OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING ONCE AGAIN, WITH
MORE SCATTERS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM, MAINLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY, WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 KTS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN UPPER
SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. TUESDAY HAS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS/SH
AVIATION...DS/SH
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