877
FXUS61 KRNK 252249
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY...OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY...OTHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT- AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE TO THE EAST MOST CEILINGS
REMAINED AT ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET OR LESS. A SURFACE TROUGH
BISECTED THESE TWO AREAS, WITH EASTERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE PIEDMONT. ALOFT, MUCH DRIER AIR WAS
MOVING IN AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAD
REPLACED THE STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS, SO SOME SITES WERE NOT
SEEING AS MUCH SUN AS OTHERS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT, BUT STRATUS AND FOG CREEP BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT, A DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NNE AS OPPOSED TO ENE, SO ANY ENERGY MOVING
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, AGAIN ON AND AROUND
THE BLUE RIDGE. CAPE MAY REACH A 1000 J/KG OR BETTER, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, SO A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE SUMMERTIME STORMS, AND UP TO AN INCH OR
MORE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IRONICALLY ONE
THING THAT WILL LIMIT SEVERITY IS THE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVERALL
MOISTURE, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO ABOUT AN
INCH AND A THIRD. MONDAY LOOKS EVEN MORE ANEMIC MOISTURE-WISE,
SO THIS SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MOST WITH NO RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING
INCREASING DEW POINTS TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS
STRONG WAA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS, A
FEW WHICH MAY BE STRONG. LATER ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AND THIS, ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING
LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT, WOULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL. THIS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAST WE CAN RECOVER FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION, AND IF WE GET BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO RECOUP
INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 40 KTS, AND
CURRENT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARIES AND DIVING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/JET STREAK IS AROUND PEAK HEATING.
WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR BOTH A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
SPC ON DAY 4 (TUESDAY), AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC THAT DAY. UCAR'S MEDIUM RANGE
CONVECTIVE MODEL CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT TUESDAY FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, CONSIST OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
CONVECTION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH
MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER. IF SO THIS AREA
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO THREATEN SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF IT, BUT WITHOUT
THE SAME FORCING AS ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD SEE A
BREAK FROM DAILY RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING AS EXPECT THE SUB-VFR CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT AND LIFT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT,
STRATUS AND FOG GAIN HOLD AGAIN FOR MOST SITES, WITH MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR EAST AND IFR TO LIFR WEST.
PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 14Z SUNDAY WITH MORE SCT/BKN CUMULUS BY
18Z IN THE 3-7KFT RANGE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS, SO NOT
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MONDAY ALSO APPEARS MAINLY VFR AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW
CLOUDS AGAIN TOWARD LWB/BCB/BLF.
BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND THEN A COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA. WED-THU SHOULD BE
DRIER AND VFR OUTSIDE ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP
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