646
FXUS61 KRNK 262302
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTH IN NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH
SITUATED IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL HELP FOCUS CELLS. WITH
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT AN OCCASIONAL STRONGER STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL. AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT,
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND DAMP
NIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG. MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WITH
DRIER AIR IN THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE AREA MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO TO THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS, A FEW WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS, IN THE FORM OF A BOWING MCS TRAVELING FROM
THE OH VALLEY. CAMS ARE NOW STEERING THE BRUNT OF THIS FEATURE
TO OUR WEST, OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. IF SO, WE MAY JUST GET
AWAY WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT, AT LEAST
EARLY ON. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, A SURFACE LOW SAGS SOUTH
TOWARDS THE REGION, AND THE SHORT WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES. SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE MORNING
CONVECTION LASTS AND HOW MUCH TIME THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TO
RECOVER, OR DESTABILIZE AGAIN, AHEAD OF THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. IT APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL LOOK LIKELY
AS LONG AS WE CAN DESTABILIZE. CONSISTENT SEVERE WEATHER
FORECASTS BY SEVERAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE ECMWF
EFI AND SHIFT OF TAILS FOR CAPE/SHEAR HAS A BULLSEYE OVER MUCH
OF SW VA AND NW NC TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO PEAK
AROUND 40 KTS, AND CURRENT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARIES AND DIVING
SHORT WAVE ENERGY/JET STREAK IS AROUND PEAK HEATING. WE CONTINUE
TO BE OUTLOOKED ON TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FROM SPC, AND A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALSO LOOK QUIET, WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR JUST ABOUT AREAWIDE THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE,
UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO, WHEN ANY CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY,
WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER MID
TO LATE MORNING, AND SKIES WILL BECOME SCT FOR MOST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z MONDAY,
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS, POSSIBLY UP TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
RIDGELINE, BUT NOT AT AREA TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBLF, KLWB, AND KBCB. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS WITH INTENSE WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS
IN GENERAL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS, HIGHER ON RIDGELINES. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO VFR, OUTSIDE ANY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...AS/SH
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