428
FXUS61 KRNK 270637
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
NO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CONFIDENCE IS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN A SECOND WAVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CONFIDENCE IS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN A SECOND WAVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A RAIN-FREE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THREE TO FIVE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THOSE REALIZED ON SUNDAY. TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ARRIVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS ACROSS KY/WV OVERNIGHT, REACHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS
FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IS PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, OF IT REACHING
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NEXT SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG AND ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS, COINCIDENT WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION LIMITING
NET SOLAR RADIATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH BOTH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BOUT HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL. FOR EITHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION, DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HEAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND. WITH IT WILL COME INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
MOIST FLOW INTO OUR REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM'S UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 0530Z, LINGERING SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KDAN ARE
EXITING THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE KBLF REGION. OTHER THAN THESE,
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENT OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, CONCLUDING AT 06Z/2AM
TUESDAY. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED WHERE RAIN OCCURRED ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING, AND ALSO WITH THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEY. A FULL RANGE OF LIFR TO MVFR IS EXPECTED. ANY SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN TWO TO
THREE HOURS OF SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIODS, AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY AROUND 4 TO
7 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBLF, KLWB, AND KBCB. BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS WITH INTENSE WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS
IN GENERAL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS, HIGHER ON RIDGELINES. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE FORECASTED TO VFR, OUTSIDE ANY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...AS/DS
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