143
FXUS61 KRNK 101739
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE
ALLEGHANYS AND GREENBRIER WV THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ENTERING NORTHWEST WV, SURGING
SOUTHWARD AT 30 TO 40 MPH. SPC MESOANALYSIS AND A COUPLE HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY REACHING BATH/GREENBRIER BETWEEN
3PM-4PM, OTHER MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION BUT ARE NOT
PICKING UP ON CURRENT SITUATION.
THINKING IS BUMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE THEM QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS ALL
MODELS BREAK THIS CONVECTION UP AND MAIN SUPPORT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN VA. HOWEVER, ONE MODEL DOES KEEP THE MCS SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA THOUGH 03Z, AND MAY BLEND IN
THAT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.
UPPER PATTERN KEEPS A TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO
THE CANADA, WITH RIDGE SET UP FROM TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS, SOME CONVECTIVE INDUCED WILL TRACK FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST INTO OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH GOOD SHEAR,
BUT LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE MORNING CONVECTION AND UPPER CLOUDS
THAT MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE. STILL ANY SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO SBCAPES
IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, AND SEEMS ENOUGH TO OVERALL KEEP
POPS HIGHER OVER WV PER MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED FROM NBM TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING AND CLOUD COVER.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES A LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICAL LIFT WILL ENSURE THAT STORM CHANCES
LINGER THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTH
OF CRW AS THEY ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND COULD IMPACT LWB IN THE
20-23Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS AT LWB AND BLF, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE, BUT AMENDMENTS LIKELY IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER
PER ONE MODEL SOLUTION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY SEEN ENOUGH
CLOUDS AT THE HIGHER LEVELS FENDING OFF LOW STRATUS/FOG. LESS
PESSIMISTIC FOR TERMINALS AT LWB FOR FOG BUT KEPT MVFR THERE IN
THE 9-12Z TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY RAINFALL OCCURS
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY BECOME LESS INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/WP
AVIATION...PW/WP
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