592
FXUS61 KRNK 102319
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
719 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE TAZEWELL WV TO SURRY NC SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS HAS STALLED FROM
CHARLESTON WV (KCRW) TO BLUEFIELD WV (KBLF) TO MOUNT AIRY NC
(KMWK) THIS EVENING. WATCHING FOR STORMS TO FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED TIME FOR STORMS TO ENTER OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WOULD BE BETWEEN 11P AND 1A.
UPPER PATTERN KEEPS A TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO
THE CANADA, WITH RIDGE SET UP FROM TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS, SOME CONVECTIVE INDUCED WILL TRACK FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST INTO OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH GOOD SHEAR,
BUT LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE MORNING CONVECTION AND UPPER CLOUDS
THAT MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE. STILL ANY SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO SBCAPES
IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, AND SEEMS ENOUGH TO OVERALL KEEP
POPS HIGHER OVER WV PER MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED FROM NBM TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING AND CLOUD COVER.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES A LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICAL LIFT WILL ENSURE THAT STORM CHANCES
LINGER THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WATCHING A STORM NORTHEAST OF KCRW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD IMPACT KBLF IN THE 05-06Z
TIME FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS AT KBLF, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE, BUT AMENDMENTS LIKELY IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER PER ONE
MODEL SOLUTION.
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUDS AT THE HIGHER
LEVELS TO FEND OFF LOW STRATUS/FOG. LESS PESSIMISTIC FOR
TERMINALS AT KLWB FOR FOG BUT KEPT MVFR THERE IN THE 9-12Z TIME
FRAME.
NO METARS FOR KBLF DUE TO A POWER OUTAGE IN THE AREA. AMD NOT
SKED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY RAINFALL OCCURS
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY BECOME LESS INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WP
AVIATION...RCS
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