764
FXUS61 KRNK 111355
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS. IN ESSENCE, LOWER TEMPS SOME BASED ON CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND INCREASED POPS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVER SOUTHEAST WV INTO THE ALLEGHANYS. MORE ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY WITH FREQUENT UPDATES AS NEAR TERM MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULT TIME WITH MCS CLUSTERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVED INTO THE GREENBRIER WV AREA AROUND
8AM AND BROUGHT A COUPLE TREES DOWN. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AS
THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS, WITH BEST SHEAR REMAINING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF, SUNSHINE MAY BE
LIMITED FOR A WHILE ACROSS WV INTO VA, BUT MORE SUNSHINE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS NC, SO THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY INITIATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION WITH LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING WILL BE THE CHIEF CONCERN IF THE
MCS ELONGATES SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST RESULTING IN REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE WV MOUNTAINS ARE MORE APT TO HAVE
FLOODING GIVEN THEY RECEIVED AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING FROM
THE FIRST CLUSTER.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO SUBTLE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH A 50-80 KNOT JET
STREAK REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND STATES NORTH
WILL AID IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHEAR COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVELING IN THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE REPEATED ROUNDS OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. SOME OF THESE MCS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ONE
OF THESE MCS. OVERALL, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES, AS SOME MAY ENTER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS; HOWEVER, THE
TIMING OF WHEN THEY COME THROUGH THE REGION WILL GREATLY
DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
REGION.
ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THERE WILL ALSO BE
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS POSSIBLE, SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SWELLING OF
STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION. URBAN FLOODING ALSO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT TRACK OVER
REPEATED LOCATIONS. A LARGE CONCERN IS THAT THESE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEMS LEAVE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE MORNING, WHICH MAY THEN TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH EXTENSIONS IN TIME POSSIBLY NEEDED DEPENDING ON FUTURE
FORECASTS.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE
OVER/WITHIN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL. THERE IS QUITE A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. CURRENTLY, A DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH LWB AND BLF THIS MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR THUS FAR. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT THE IMPACT OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE ON ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST
CAM GUIDANCE HAS AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING
THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY; HOWEVER, SOME CAM GUIDANCE
DOES NOT HAVE ANY ACTIVITY DUE TO THIS MORNING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS LEAVING BEHIND A STABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LIKELY THAT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENINGS FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
WINDS TODAY WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
NO METARS FOR KBLF DUE TO A POWER OUTAGE IN THE AREA. AMD NOT
SKED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, WITH SUB- VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY RAINFALL OCCURS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BECOME LESS
INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB
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