228
FXUS61 KRNK 111739
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS. POPS LOWERED FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORM CHANCES STAY WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
STORM CHANCES STAY WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HAVE KEPT FLOOD WATCH AS IS, WITH
MORE CONCERN OVER OUR WV COUNTIES, BUT OVER TIME, SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE PATH OF STORMS WOULD IMPACT THE NC MOUNTAINS.
SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH WITH LIMITED
TRAINING/REPEAT STORMS TO KEEP FLOOD THREAT DOWN, BUT ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WV EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY POSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY FROM FAR SOUTHWEST VA INTO NC WHERE SUNSHINE WAS
MORE PLENTIFUL TO ALLOW DESTABLIZATION, THOUGH BETTER SHEAR IS
FURTHER NORTH.
THE MCS MOVING INTO OUR SE WV COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
NOT AS UNSTABLE, THANKS TO EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AND
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'S
LONGEVITY. NEVERTHELESS, SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT AND MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM MCS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES COULD RIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON HOW THIS
TRANSPIRES, BUT FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS POINT TO THE SAME
GENERAL PATH INTO EASTERN OHIO, THEN SOUTHEAST INTO WV/SW VA.
SOME MODELS ARE HAVING IT TURN MORE SOUTH THROUGH KY WHILE
OTHERS SPLIT IT AND HAVE ONE PIECE GOING ACROSS PA/MD.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THIS EVENING ON POPS BUT HAVE SEEN ENOUGH
TRENDS/PATTERN RECOGNITION TO AT LEAST HAVE CONFIDENCE OF LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTH ALONG I-64. THEN SOUTHWEST INTO WV/FAR SW VA
WITH LESS CHANCES IN NC. BUT AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH MCS'S, THEY
CAN HOLD TOGETHER, EVEN IN A WEAKENED STATE TO BRING MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO MOST OF THE AREA.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY,
BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS, BUT WILL LEAN DRIER AS PATTERN
REMAINS THE SAME THOUGH UPSTREAM VORTS APPEAR WEAKER.
STILL, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
HAVE A CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON THE POSITION OF THE PRIMARY
SURFACE FRONT AND ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AND ALSO ACROSS FAVORED TERRAIN
AREAS, WITH MODEST WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF
WIND DAMAGE. ANY FEATURES FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
(SUCH AS A PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER OR MCV) COULD RESULT IN A
GREATER COVERAGE OF WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
WE KEEP A PATTERN OF A FRONT STALLED OR SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MAYBE BY THE WEEKEND WE DRY OUT SOME,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL CHANCES OF STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL TERMINALS, SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY FOR BLF/LWB AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDER.
AS WITH ANY STORM, SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAIN LOWERING VSBY DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
GROUND FOG FROM RAIN POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR FOG OR LOWER CLOUD IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. MAINLY
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page