429
FXUS61 KRNK 121027
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
627 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH IS CONTINUED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TODAY.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORM CHANCES STAY WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
STORM CHANCES STAY WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL PATTERN HAVE
REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED SINCE MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW MCS DISTURBANCES TO
TRAVERSE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR
TODAY, THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO NUDGE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY THAT THE TRAIN OF
REPEATED MCS SHOULD COME TO AN END; HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH ACROSS THE REGION, DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TODAY, CAM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REMAINING MINIMAL TODAY; HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING IN A POSSIBLE MCS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TODAY. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAD LOW POPS FOR TODAY, BUT
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY TO SHOW THIS CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HINGING ON
CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION, THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WITH ELEVATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING OVER THE REGION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS, WITH MODEST
WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW-
DRIVEN CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. ANY FEATURES
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE (SUCH AS A PERSISTENT
STORM CLUSTER OR MCV) COULD RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF
WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUTSIDE OF SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS RIVER VALLEY FOG AND SUBSEQUENT IFR TO LIFR VSBYS
AND CIGS LOOK TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
THE FORECAST IS AGAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN TODAY WITH CAM GUIDANCE
AND GLOBAL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS; HOWEVER, CAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE
ANY CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY, NO SHRA/TSRA HAS BEEN ADDED THUS FAR AS INITIAL
THINKING IS TO LEAN TOWARDS CAM GUIDANCE AND ONLY MAINTAIN
ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KNOT OR LESS EXPECTED. GUSTS UP TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNLESS THE
FORECAST DRASTICALLY CHANGES.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. MAINLY
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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