662
FXUS61 KRNK 121810
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
210 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH IS CONTINUED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GOING TO LESS SEVERE THREAT THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
LESS SEVERE THREAT BUT STILL STORM CHANCES REMAIN THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
WE MAY GET A COUPLE MORE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ONE
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER THURSDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING STRONGER
WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THESE TIMES.
HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIMITED. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WV AREA
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BETTER SUPPORT FOR ANY
SEVERE LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VA.
AS FOR FLOODING, NOT THAT CONCERNED, BUT WITH THE UPSTREAM
CLUSTER AND RECENT RAINFALL LETTING THE FLOOD WATCH RIDE FOR
NOW. IF STORMS DO NOT TRANSPIRE BY THIS EVENING, WE LIKELY CAN
CANCEL IT EARLY.
LESS COVERAGE THURSDAY WITH LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS, SO JUST TYPICAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE DOES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IS A LITTLE
HIGHER ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND ADJACENT
ALLEGHANYS OF VA. TIMING OF THIS WAVE TO THAT LATE IN THE NIGHT
LEADS TO OVERALL LOWER SEVERE THREAT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FLOODING AGAIN IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS THE SAME BUT THE RIDGE DOES
BUILD A LITTLE MORE NORTHEASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND AND NUDGE THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE KICKS THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
COULD SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE OF STORM COVERAGE. THE FLOW
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ALOFT BY TUE-WED SO FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS ALOFT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT A BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY IMPACT THE LWB/BLF
CORRIDOR BY 00Z, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS ROA/BCB BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS. AS SUCH HAVE VCSH AT BLF/LWB AS THINK
THUNDER CHANCE SHOULD LESS IN THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME.
OVERNIGHT LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG MAY CREATE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BLF/LWB/BCB, MAINLY IN THE 08-13Z TIMEFRAME.
WE GO BACK TO VFR ALL SITES LATE THU MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page