478
FXUS61 KRNK 122359
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH IS CONTINUED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GOING TO LESS SEVERE THREAT THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
LESS SEVERE THREAT BUT STILL STORM CHANCES REMAIN THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING LOOK TO PRIMARILY
IMPACT AREAS WEST OF OUR REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THOSE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-77 MAY RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN,
WE WILL BE CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HAS HIGH
FOR A STRONG IMPACT. LIKEWISE, CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO. SOME
EARLIER SOLUTIONS LEAN TOWARD A LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MAY
IMPACT OTHER SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE ABOVE, OUR
FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TO REMAIN ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-77 FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST, WITH
LESSER CHANCES EAST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS STILL
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LESS COVERAGE THURSDAY WITH LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT BASED ON
MODEL CONSENSUS, SO JUST TYPICAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE DOES ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IS A
LITTLE HIGHER ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND ADJACENT
ALLEGHANYS OF VA. TIMING OF THIS WAVE TO THAT LATE IN THE NIGHT
LEADS TO OVERALL LOWER SEVERE THREAT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FLOODING AGAIN IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS THE SAME BUT THE RIDGE DOES
BUILD A LITTLE MORE NORTHEASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND AND NUDGE THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE KICKS THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
COULD SEE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE OF STORM COVERAGE. THE FLOW
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ALOFT BY TUE-WED SO FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS ALOFT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT A BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, LOWERING
CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING SOME
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL GENERALLY TO CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THEY STAY
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT TREND PREVAILING 7 TO
10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...DS/WP
AVIATION...DS/WP
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