484
FXUS61 KRNK 131126
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED. JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE THIS MORNING, AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING FROM THIS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO ENTER THE
AREA ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERITY OF THESE
SYSTEMS AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA, AS TIMING OF THEM ENTERING
THE AREA WILL DETERMINE HOW SEVERE THEY WILL BE. IF THESE
SYSTEMS APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH A
PEAK UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION, THEN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, IF THESE
SYSTEMS APPROACH OVERNIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
BY LATE FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES, WHICH WILL NUDGE THE TRAIN TRACKS SO TO
SPEAK FOR THESE MCS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TODAY
REMAINING LIMITED IN COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT A BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG ARE IMPACTING BCB AND LWB.
THESE IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR TODAY.
POSSIBLE RIVER VALLEY FOG AND LOW CIGS LOOK TO IMPACT BLF, BCB,
AND LWB AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS LOOK TO GO CALM AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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