418
FXUS61 KRNK 131733
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH CHANGED IN THE FORECAST, POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER WV
INTO THE ALLEGHANYS/SW VA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED VORTS TRACK FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER FLOW AND STRENGTH OF
THE CLUSTERS WILL DICTATE WHERE THEY GO, WITH OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MOST MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM ALONG/NORTH OF I-64, BUT SOME SOUTHEAST TRENDS INTO
OUR AREA ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING ROUGHLY TOWARD DAWN IN WV MOVING
EAST INTO THE MORNING. GOING TO KEEP POPS HIGHEST IN OUR WV
COUNTIES THEN TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE IN THE NC PIEDMONT.
DEPENDING ON ANY SUNSHINE FRIDAY WHICH SEEMS LESS TO THE NORTH
AND MORE OVER NC DICTATES SEVERE THREAT. STILL THINK A FEW
STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, SIMILAR SETUP WITH TRYING TO
TIME SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AND IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM OVER US IN TERMS OF
TIMING/CLOUD COVER AND IMPACT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THOUGH LOOKS LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
WITH RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE MORE, BUT THEN RIDGE GETS FLATTENED
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS, THOUGH FLOW IS
MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY KEEP STORM COVERAGE FOR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT A BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/FEW STORMS NEAR
LWB/BLF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN ILLINOIS COULD ENCROACH ON THE AREA TOWARD
12Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS HAVE
SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARRIVING BY 09-12Z IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH OTHERS
PAINTING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG. AM LEANING IN BETWEEN AND
WILL HAVE A LITTLE FOG AND IFR AT LWB, TRENDING BETTER TOWARD
BLF/BCB. IF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE SOONER, FOG CHANCES DROP OFF.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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