224
FXUS61 KRNK 132308
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS THIS EVENING TO HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE IF ANY COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED VORTS TRACK FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER FLOW AND STRENGTH OF
THE CLUSTERS WILL DICTATE WHERE THEY GO, WITH OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MOST MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM ALONG/NORTH OF I-64, BUT SOME SOUTHEAST TRENDS INTO
OUR AREA ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING ROUGHLY TOWARD DAWN IN WV MOVING
EAST INTO THE MORNING. GOING TO KEEP POPS HIGHEST IN OUR WV
COUNTIES THEN TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE IN THE NC PIEDMONT.
DEPENDING ON ANY SUNSHINE FRIDAY WHICH SEEMS LESS TO THE NORTH
AND MORE OVER NC DICTATES SEVERE THREAT. STILL THINK A FEW
STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, SIMILAR SETUP WITH TRYING TO
TIME SYSTEMS UPSTREAM AND IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM OVER US IN TERMS OF
TIMING/CLOUD COVER AND IMPACT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THOUGH LOOKS LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
WITH RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE MORE, BUT THEN RIDGE GETS FLATTENED
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS, THOUGH FLOW IS
MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY KEEP STORM COVERAGE FOR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT A BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS. DO NOT SEE FOG BECOMING TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AT LWB/BCB AND MAYBE BLF LATE TONIGHT.
CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MITIGATE THIS FOG
THOUGH.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS CLOSE TO LWB LATE TONIGHT, SO HAVE VCSH
IN THERE.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TOMORROW WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT SO FOR
NOW KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WP
AVIATION...WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page