217
FXUS61 KRNK 142311
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH, BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEEK. SOME
STORMS INTO SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEEK. SOME
STORMS INTO SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CONVECTIVE
PERTURBATIONS MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, THEN SOME UPPER FLOW/CORFIDI VECTORS TRACK THEM ACROSS
OUR AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE
WEAK, BUT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THOUGH LOOKS LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
WITH RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE MORE. AS THIS HAPPENS,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA LEVELS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE RIDGE
GETS FLATTENED WITH MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. THE FLOW BEING MORE WESTERLY MAY KEEP STORM COVERAGE FOR
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. COULD SEE
CONVECTION AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE SPOTTY.
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT DAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER 12-14Z.
OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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