520
FXUS61 KRNK 151621
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1221 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. FORECAST UPDATED WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THAT HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR
MORNING CONVECTION TO BE TRACKING ALONG. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH CAM GUIDANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS COVERAGE COULD BE PRETTY
LIMITED. NONETHELESS WHAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN DECENT
PROGGED INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWATS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND SPC HAS REMOVED THE SLIGHT
RISK FROM OUR AREA THOUGH KEEPS MUCH OF IT IN A MARGINAL RISK.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THAN
TODAY AS BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE UPPER FLOW AND A PROGGED INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY. WE ARE OUTLOOKED WITH A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WITH A MARGINAL RISK MOST ELSEWHERE. THE THREATS SHOULD
REMAIN FOCUSED ON STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS WELL.
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY ALONG
WITH AN ATTENDANCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY
BE MORE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND SPC KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK
TO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AS WELL. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE
A PATTERN SHIFT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY MIDWEEK. THIS IS RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED HOWEVER
AS MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES BACK BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
GENERAL CU FIELD NEAR 4-6 KFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSRA POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AGAIN THAT COULD CAUSE VRB GUSTS AND REDUCED
VSBYS. OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT LIFR AND LOWER CIGS
WITH REDUCED VSBYS AS A LOW COULD DECK IS FORECAST NEAR 200-500 FT
AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE PERHAPS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS TODAY GENERALLY UNDER 7
KTS OUT OF THE NE FOR THE EASTERN SITES AND NW FOR THE MOUNTAIN
SITES THEN BECOMING MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS OUT OF THE
SW TO WEST WITH INCREASED MAGNITUDES GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH CHANCES
FOR STORMS MONDAY THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB
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