162
FXUS61 KRNK 170112
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
912 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #588 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 P.M.
WE RECENTLY EXPANDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. ALSO, THERE'S AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #588 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 11 P.M. EDT.
2) CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #588 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 11 P.M. EDT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STILL ON THE STRONG
SIDE, CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AT MID-
EVENING. FARTHER WEST, WE'RE CLOSELY WATCHING THE NEXT CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.
BEST GUESS IS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER COULD BE
ENCROACHING UPON OUR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AS EARLY WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.
OVERALL, A WEAKENING TREND IN THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SEEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT, WE STILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, EVEN THOUGH WE SAW A ROUND
OF STORMS EARLIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
CAN TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, THERE'LL BE A CONTINUED
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL RISK, I'M RELUCTANT
TO CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #588 EARLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY.
WNW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND CYCLONIC FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A MEAN TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITHIN
THIS FLOW, A NUMBER OF PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH WILL HELP
AUGMENT AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE, TRIGGERING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE REMNANTS OF ONE
MCS MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF WV, VA, AND NC THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. STORMS WERE ALSO BEING AIDED BY A WARM FRONT
SNAKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND IMPACT THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SOME OF THAT AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION. SO AFTER A BREAK FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE TOWARDS
WV AND SOUTHWEST VA AFTER 7 PM THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THIS
CLUSTER WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV.
SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A
SUPERCELL OR TWO. MOST CONCERNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND FLASH FLOODING, WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2
INCHES RANGE. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN FLASH FLOODING TODAY IN
GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTIES, AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SE WV AND ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER WHERE FFG
VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES FOR 1 HOUR. THERE IS ALSO AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT.
THIS INCLUDES SE WV AND PARTS OF SW AND WEST CENTRAL VA WHERE
THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE VALUE HOVERS AROUND 2 TO 4 ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE, AND WHERE LCL HEIGHTS ARE 500 TO 750 METERS
AGL.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT/FRONTAL FRACTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH CHANCES EXPAND
TO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED TO BE MORE ACROSS SW VA AND
NE NC BY TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES DON'T LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL THURSDAY, WITH THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT A REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT COMPLEX
OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES E ACROSS SE WV, WITH IFR-MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THE LIKELY WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH,
EXPECT BR/FG TO DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES
RESTRICTED THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TERMINALS W OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH ERN TERMINALS
LIKELY REMAINING VFR.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 17/1800 UTC
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY ONE TERMINAL SEEING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON IS GREATEST
ACROSS SE WV, AND HAVE OPTED TO PUT VCTS ONLY HERE. KEEP IN
MIND, THOUGH, TERMINALS FARTHER E WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE SOME
SHRA/TSRA, IT'S JUST HARD TO PINPOINT THE TIME RIGHT NOW. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY IVOF ANY TSRA.
WINDS BECOME MORE WNW TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
WITH SOME HIGHER 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS FOR THE RIDGES.
OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
DRY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT BR/STRATUS.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF WV
AND VA......
AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SE WV AND ALONG THE
WV/VA BORDER WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES FOR 1
HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, ON TOP OF THE
RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN TODAY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING IN GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTIES
TODAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...DB/EB/SH
AVIATION...SH
HYDROLOGY...SH
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