862
FXUS61 KRNK 312344
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION. SHOWERS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN TAFS.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEGINNING THU/FRI AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDS THIS WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN/STORMS BY THE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT BUILDS THIS WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK, LEADING TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S OVER THE REGION.
THE HEAT SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAINS QUITE HIGH THURSDAY
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S FOR PARTS OF
THE PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE ROANOKE URBAN AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA... HOWEVER THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD
LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTDOORS THIS WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THIS WEEK WITH PERHAPS A FEW TINY CELLS
TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, BUT
STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAN SHALLOW CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN/STORMS BY THE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY WILL AMPLIFY RESULTING
IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
STRONG RIDGING MOVES WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. INCREASED FORCING
FROM AN APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD INTRODUCE BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVERLAP STILL REMAINS CLOSER TO
THE MASON- DIXON LINE FRIDAY, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS
APPEARS TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IN-SITU WEDGING MAY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AT LWB AND POSSIBLY BCB. OTHERWISE, ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR CONFIDENCE TO
ADD IN ANY OF THE TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LESS THAN 10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS DUE TO PATCHY MORNING FOG. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...PM
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