739
FXUS61 KRNK 020003
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE PIEDMONT THU EVENING AND
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU SATURDAY.
2) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
RIDGE ALOFT TO LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH SOME
SUPPRESSION COMES BY THE WEEKEND WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT. STILL
TEMPS SHOULD RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY WED-THU,
APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE PIEDMONT. DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD
COVER MAY BE KEY IN WHETHER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 105 ARE
REACHED IN THE PIEDMONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS,
APPEARS TO BE JUST UNDER FOR WED-THU, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADVISORY. STILL HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS BAD, SO MAKE SURE YOU
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF OUTDOORS.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND BRING
US BACK DOWN TO HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THU EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE SINKS FURTHER SOUTHWEST THU INTO FRIDAY, MODELS
HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE/VORT CENTERS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WE MAY GET A PIECE OF THAT SHORTWAVE THU
EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA IF THE STORM CLUSTERS SINK
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. MOST MODELS HAVE IT DRY BUT STILL POTENTIAL
EXISTS.
FRIDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA
SINCE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NNW-SSE AND ALLOWS FOR SOME STORM
CLUSTERS TO DRIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PIEDMONT. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS BEEN KEEPING ON
DRY SIDE, BUT HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS CONTINGENCY.
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF
20-35KTS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL WINDS TO BECOME AN
ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRONT TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND KEEPING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AROUND, BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER, TEMPS
WILL COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT LWB AND BCB
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOULD BE AT LEAST VFR INTO THURSDAY, EXCEPT THE USUAL FOG
ISSUES AT LWB/BCB.
STORM CHANCES START INCHING UP BY FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A FRONT, SO OVERALL VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. A HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE WORKS IN BY SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE SUB-VFR CIGS IF IT
DOESN'T CLEAR OUT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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