098
FXUS61 KRNK 021354
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY. MAY NEED ONE FOR TOMORROW AS WELL.
HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF AN AMHERST TO
SOUTH BOSTON LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
2) MULTIPLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNUSUALLY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE MID-90S TO LOWER
100S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER
70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY GET TO AT LEAST 105 DEGREES IN
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT
THIS HAZARD. CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS IN EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY
MAY BE ABLE TO PREVENT THE WORST OF IT BUT HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE PUBLIC DOES NOT HYDRATE
OFTEN AND STAY IN COOLED AREAS.
THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CLOSEST TO US. WHILE SUBTLE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS WILL PREVENT HEAT INDICES FROM
REACHING 110, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY REACH 105 IN A WIDER AREA. AS
EXPECTED, THE HOTTEST PART OF THE REGION WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. THE WARMTH WILL
STILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BUT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE
WESTWARD AND STORM ACTIVITY MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING AS HIGH AS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY BRING AIR
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN A LITTLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEK WEEKEND.
SOME HIGH- RES GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER PA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING/DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN VA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND COULD SEE IT REACHING A BUCKINGHAM TO SOUTH
BOSTON/CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE AREA AND POINTS EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL SIDE NOTE BEFORE GETTING INTO THE WEEKEND STORMS: AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST
TERRITORY, RIDGE RIDER STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE TRAVELING AROUND
THE 500MB HIGH AND DELIVER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. THESE STORMS
HAVE A CHANCE TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE SUPPRESSIVE
PRESTIGE OF THE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. AROUND THE SAME TIME THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO
SHOW CRACKS IN ITS STRUCTURE. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE
PUSHED OFF WESTWARD AND REORGANIZE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANOTHER SYSTEM TRAVELING ALONG THE
INNER RINGS OF THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INTERCEPT OUR AREA AND
DELIVER THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE BETTER
KINEMATICS SO FAR LOOK TO BE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND
THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY INSTEAD OF FRIDAY, MEANING THE BETTER
NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY, LEADING
TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR FRIDAY'S STORMS. STILL, CAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH STORM ORGANIZATION FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THE WINDS WILL BE CALM FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG AT KBLF
AND KLWB. BY SUNRISE, THE FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND ALL TERMINALS
WILL ENJOY ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE BETWEEN 2-8 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THOSE PERIODS. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST TRAVELS SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN AND DELIVER SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL NOTICEABLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ034-035-
044>047-058-059.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...CG
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