298
FXUS61 KRNK 021731
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE VA PIEDMONT INTO
CASWELL COUNTY NC FOR THURSDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH
OF I-64 THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH SOME MODELS ARE
KEEPING US DRY AND THE STORMS NORTHEAST OF US.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
2) MULTIPLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. SOME STRONG/SEVERE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ISSUED AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY FOR THE SAME AREA BUT ADDED CASWELL COUNTY NC
GOING TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE HEAT FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY. THE ONLY THING THURSDAY THAT
COULD KEEP IT FROM GETTING AS HOT AS TODAY WOULD BE ANY
CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION BUT OVERALL THE
MODEL UPPER WINDS ARE GOING TO BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST WHILE THE
STORMS MOVE FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN VA TOMORROW.
DESPITE SOME AREAS NOT REACHING QUITE 105, GIVEN ITS SEPTEMBER
AND WITH OUTDOOR/SCHOOL ACTIVITIES FEEL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
IS WARRANTED.
THINGS STAR TO TREND DOWN IN TEMPS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME STRONG/SEVERE ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS AROUND THE BUCKINGHAM TO SOUTH
BOSTON AREA THIS EVENING BUT MODELS OVERALL TAKE THE BETTER
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER TO THE EAST TOWARD THE COAST.
SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CHANCES TOMORROW THOUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE STILL HOLDS ON SOMEWHAT BUT HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY FALL ACROSS
VA.
AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS OF STRONG/SEVERE VARIETY ARE
POSSIBLE. ALONG/NORTH OF I-64 AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FROM SPC - DESPITE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT, DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE
SURFACE FRONT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500-3500 J/KG. THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL COINCIDE WITH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WEST-
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW, YIELDING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR BOWING
STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT MAY EVOLVE.
APPEARS THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA
ESPECIALLY HAIL CHANCES GIVEN WARMER RIDGE. STILL DAMAGING WINDS
ARE A CONCERN GIVEN THE AVAILABLE ENERGY FROM THE HEAT.
THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES
SHOULD DROP WITH MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT HEAT BUILDS AGAIN BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER 5H RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GOING TO HAVE VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE THE
FOG OF 1/4SM AT LWB GIVEN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS, FROM
ROUGHLY 6-14Z.
ANY STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH-EAST OF LYH.
THURSDAY'S CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE AFTER 18Z AND AGAIN
NORTH/EAST OF A LWB-LYH LINE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS IN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR FROM THE STORMS SHOULD BE
VFR. A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUB-VFR SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW,
THEN VFR MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ034-035-
044>047-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ034-035-
044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...CG/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page