344
FXUS61 KRNK 031723
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE VA PIEDMONT INTO CASWELL
COUNTY NC.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL VA AND VA PIEDMONT TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TOMORROW. BREAK IN THE
HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TOMORROW. BREAK IN THE
HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 500MB RIDGE, ALLOWING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH IS 10 TO 17 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
TODAY, THOUGH ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD PREVENT
REACHING THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND ONE MAY
BE CONSIDERED FOR TOMORROW AS WELL, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS AND CLOUD COVER,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
COOLER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S IN THE WEST AND LOW TO
MID 80S IN THE EAST, ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO INDICATE A WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH TYPICALLY KEEPS THE AREA COOLER AND CLOUDY, THOUGH DEPENDS HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES. COULD SEE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TREND A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US BEGINS TO GET SUPPRESSED BY A TROUGH TRACKING FROM
THE PACIFIC NW TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN US, THOUGH
SOME MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS, RISING HEIGHTS UNDERNEATH THE EXPANDING
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES, PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN, FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE 50% TO 75% FOR
PARTS OF THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY, AND 70% TO 80% BY
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH SBCAPE
REACHING AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG OR SO. HOWEVER, THE STRONGER BULK
SHEAR IS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH, IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VA. SOME
CAMS ARE SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRIVEN BY SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
IN STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TODAY, THAN TOMORROW (FRIDAY). A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR CONVECTION. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, WHICH AGAIN GIVES ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT, WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO
POSSIBLE IN STORMS TODAY AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SLOWER, SO SUNDAY
MAY ALSO BE A WET DAY, THOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD, ENDING 18Z FRIDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS BEING MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG FOR KLWB AND
POSSIBLY KBCB FROM 06Z AND 13Z, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY ALSO SEE
FOG DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT FOG WILL IMPACT
THE OTHER AREA TERMINALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA, AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, FROM
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA INTO NORTHWEST NC. AT THIS
TIME, KLYH AND KDAN LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE
ANY STORMS OR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND CALM IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY, 13Z OR SO, WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, BUT MODERATE ON THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL, MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS EACH MORNING WITH
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN, AND ON SUNDAY
WITH MOIST, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. DRY, BUT BREEZY, WEATHER AND VFR
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA. SOME RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR
BROKEN.
TODAY 09/03/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 94 1953 75 1925
KDAN 99 1980 77 1931
KLYH 96 1953 72 1993
KROA 101 1930 73 2020
KRNK 96 1900 68 1941
FRIDAY 09/04/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 93 1925 74 1925
KDAN 101 1925 74 1993
KLYH 99 1925 72 1970
KROA 99 1925 80 1930
KRNK 93 1925 68 1953
SATURDAY 09/05/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 95 1954 76 1925
KDAN 101 1954 73 2012
KLYH 99 1954 71 1979
KROA 101 1954 72 2019
KRNK 93 1925 70 1899
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ034-035-
044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...SH
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