462
FXUS61 KRNK 040045
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
845 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC FRIDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA PER CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
PROPAGATING SOUTH FROM NOVA AND WV.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FRIDAY. BREAK IN THE HEAT LATE
IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FRIDAY. BREAK IN THE
HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 500MB RIDGE, ALLOWING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH IS 10 TO 17 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
TODAY, THOUGH ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD PREVENT
REACHING THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND ONE MAY
BE CONSIDERED FOR TOMORROW AS WELL, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS AND CLOUD COVER,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
COOLER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S IN THE WEST AND LOW TO
MID 80S IN THE EAST, ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO INDICATE A WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH TYPICALLY KEEPS THE AREA COOLER AND CLOUDY, THOUGH DEPENDS HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES. COULD SEE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TREND A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US BEGINS TO GET SUPPRESSED BY A TROUGH TRACKING FROM
THE PACIFIC NW TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN US, THOUGH
SOME MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS, RISING HEIGHTS UNDERNEATH THE EXPANDING
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES, PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN, FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE 50% TO 75% FOR
PARTS OF THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY, AND 70% TO 80% BY
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STRONGEST BULK SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT, BUT
EXPECTING SHEAR TO INCREASE AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT STRAY STORM TONIGHT AS OUTFLOW DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS SKIRT OUR NORTHERN CWA. BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN, EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM THE MASO-DIXON FRIDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY, WHICH AGAIN GIVES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG FOR KLWB AND POSSIBLY KBCB FROM 06Z AND 13Z, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR CALM TONIGHT, THE BECOME WESTERLY FRIDAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING THREAT SUNDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EACH MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. DRY, BUT BREEZY, WEATHER AND VFR
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE
BROKEN AT LYNCHBURG (99 DEGREES) AND DANVILLE (102 DEGREES)
TODAY.
TODAY 09/03/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 94 1953 75 1925
KDAN 99 1980 77 1931
KLYH 96 1953 72 1993
KROA 101 1930 73 2020
KRNK 96 1900 68 1941
FRIDAY 09/04/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 93 1925 74 1925
KDAN 101 1925 74 1993
KLYH 99 1925 72 1970
KROA 99 1925 80 1930
KRNK 93 1925 68 1953
SATURDAY 09/05/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 95 1954 76 1925
KDAN 101 1954 73 2012
KLYH 99 1954 71 1979
KROA 101 1954 72 2019
KRNK 93 1925 70 1899
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/PM
AVIATION...AS/PM
CLIMATE...PM
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