902
FXUS61 KRNK 042056
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
456 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DELAYED: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 TIL 10PM FOR OUR NC
COUNTIES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653 ISSUED TIL 9PM FOR ALL OF OUR
WV/VA COUNTIES.
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED TIL 7PM FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH HEAT INDICES
ALREADY NEAR 105 AS OF 1230PM.
AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC
TIL 8PM TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGED TO THE SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT SUNDAY FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT STILL AN ISSUE IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SATURDAY AND MORE-SO SUNDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT AGAIN AN ISSUE IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY. LESS
SO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE
PIEDMONT AS OF 1PM, AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN/NEAR 70, HEAT INDICES
ALREADY AROUND 105. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF A LYNCHBURG/DANVILLE/REIDSVILLE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON.
MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SATURDAY
SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAT A FEW DEGREES, BUT MORE-SO SUNDAY WHEN THE
FRONT IS SOUTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES HEAD TO NEAR NORMAL LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT MID TO LATE WEEK THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEAST AGAIN TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, ARE EXPECTED TO FLOW SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
HIGH-RES/CAM MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
CONVECTION MOVES IN AND/OR DEVELOPS. THE HIRESARW HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON WHAT WAS HAPPENING THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. SINCE LOOKED
REASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON. BLENDED THIS IN WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. GETTING ISOLATED STORMS IN WV BUT STILL OVERALL LOOKS
LIKE A SCATTERED NATURE TO THE STORMS, POTENTIALLY MORE
ORGANIZED FROM EASTERN WV NORTH OF I-64, INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA, WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AMID A VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT,
BUT AMPLE MOISTURE (I.E. PW VALUES FROM 1.8" TO 2"), STRONG
BUOYANCY, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG OUTFLOW CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE HERE AS WELL.
OVERALL, FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN FLOW, BUT IF THERE
IS TRAINING OF STORMS, MAYBE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SATURDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND CAROLINAS.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS.
SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NC PIEDMONT.
FARTHER WEST, DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS SIGNAL VARIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT THE
GREATER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER 70S
DEWPOINTS AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR AMID A FRONT AND HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF MOSTLY DAMAGING WINDS.
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, STRONG HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND VICINITY SHOULD PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
AIRMASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION (~20 KNOTS) AND THEREFORE, EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. HOWEVER,
STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
THESE STORMS CLUSTERING AND TRAVERSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
CONTINUING INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR, AND POTENTIAL FOR LESSER INSTABILITY DUE
TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS CASTS
SIGNIFICANT DOUBT ON THIS POTENTIAL.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT SOUTH OF US SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER
COUPLE OF IMPULSES AND SOME LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR
AT LEAST THREAT OF MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SUNDAY BUT
LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS THAN NBM. SEEMS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF VA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE
REST OF THE AREA OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
NEXT WEEK SO FAR SEEMS RATHER DRY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ASIDE FROM ANY STORMS THAT
MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT LOW CHANCE. THERE IS A
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF BLF AND HAVE THEM WITH VCTS AND
PROB30 STARTING AT 18Z FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTER STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
LWB-LYH BUT SEEING MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE LEADS TO LESS
CONFIDENCE HAVING NO MORE THAN VCTS IN.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT EXPECT MAINLY VFR WHILE ANOTHER
SHOWER/STORM DYING MCS POTENTIALLY ARRIVES TOWARD 12Z. THIS MAY
LIMIT FOG WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN BEFORE 08Z. HAVE TEMPO THE LIFR
AT LWB FOR NOW.
KEPT IT VFR SATURDAY TIL 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LINGERING THREAT EXISTS SUNDAY PRIMARILY
ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ON
SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS EACH MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN. MAINLY VFR MONDAY-WED.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE
BROKEN AT LYNCHBURG (99 DEGREES) AND DANVILLE (102 DEGREES)
TODAY.
FRIDAY 09/04/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 93 1925 74 1925
KDAN 101 1925 74 1993
KLYH 99 1925 72 1970
KROA 99 1925 80 1930
KRNK 93 1925 68 1953
SATURDAY 09/05/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 95 1954 76 1925
KDAN 101 1954 73 2012
KLYH 99 1954 71 1979
KROA 101 1954 72 2019
KRNK 93 1925 70 1899
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
CLIMATE...PM
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