567
FXUS61 KRNK 042330
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
730 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED SOON FOR ALL
REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT STILL AN ISSUE IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SATURDAY AND MORE-SO SUNDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT AGAIN AN ISSUE IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY. LESS
SO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE
PIEDMONT AS OF 1PM, AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN/NEAR 70, HEAT INDICES
ALREADY AROUND 105. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF A LYNCHBURG/DANVILLE/REIDSVILLE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON.
MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SATURDAY
SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAT A FEW DEGREES, BUT MORE-SO SUNDAY WHEN THE
FRONT IS SOUTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES HEAD TO NEAR NORMAL LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT MID TO LATE WEEK THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEAST AGAIN TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, ARE EXPECTED TO FLOW SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
HIGH-RES/CAM MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
CONVECTION MOVES IN AND/OR DEVELOPS. THE HIRESARW HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON WHAT WAS HAPPENING THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. SINCE LOOKED
REASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON. BLENDED THIS IN WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. GETTING ISOLATED STORMS IN WV BUT STILL OVERALL LOOKS
LIKE A SCATTERED NATURE TO THE STORMS, POTENTIALLY MORE
ORGANIZED FROM EASTERN WV NORTH OF I-64, INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA, WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AMID A VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT,
BUT AMPLE MOISTURE (I.E. PW VALUES FROM 1.8" TO 2"), STRONG
BUOYANCY, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG OUTFLOW CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE HERE AS WELL.
OVERALL, FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN FLOW, BUT IF THERE
IS TRAINING OF STORMS, MAYBE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SATURDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND CAROLINAS.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS.
SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NC PIEDMONT.
FARTHER WEST, DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS SIGNAL VARIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT THE
GREATER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER 70S
DEWPOINTS AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR AMID A FRONT AND HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF MOSTLY DAMAGING WINDS.
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, STRONG HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND VICINITY SHOULD PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
AIRMASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION (~20 KNOTS) AND THEREFORE, EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. HOWEVER,
STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
THESE STORMS CLUSTERING AND TRAVERSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
CONTINUING INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR, AND POTENTIAL FOR LESSER INSTABILITY DUE
TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS CASTS
SIGNIFICANT DOUBT ON THIS POTENTIAL.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT SOUTH OF US SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER
COUPLE OF IMPULSES AND SOME LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR
AT LEAST THREAT OF MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SUNDAY BUT
LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS THAN NBM. SEEMS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF VA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE
REST OF THE AREA OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
NEXT WEEK SO FAR SEEMS RATHER DRY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ASIDE FROM ANY STORMS THAT
MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, STORM ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, SO RATHER UNLIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.
STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED VCTS
FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT BLF/LWB.
SOME POCKETS OF FOG EARLY SATURDAY, WITH BEST CONFIDENCE FOR
LWB. TOO PATCHY TO MENTION AT OTHER TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A LINGERING THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS SUNDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ON SUNDAY
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS EACH MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN. MAINLY VFR MONDAY-WED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/EB/WP
AVIATION...BMG/EB/WP
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